Markets
Where the macro cycle meets the receipts: the repo strains, the credit pockets, and the positioning few are pricing.
Markets · Exposure
Market Complacency Hasn’t Been This High in Nearly Two Decades. Here’s What the Record Shows.
Several measures of near-term financial risk are at historic lows. The vulnerabilities they would price against are not.
Markets · The Repo Problem
U.S. Treasury Bond Buyback: How The Bank of Canada’s Repo Problem Just Got Worse
In March, the Bank of Canada called hedge fund leverage in sovereign debt a systemic risk. The U.S. bond market has since come under enough stress for the Treasury Secretary to intervene. The infrastructure the Bank announced isn’t ready.
Markets · Captive Cost
Everything Canadians Own and Owe Was Priced When Long-Term Borrowing Was the Cheapest in History. Those Days Are Over.
Canada’s mortgages, government budgets, and household balance sheets were priced in a four-decade decline in borrowing costs. The repricing has started, and the variable driving it is set globally.
Markets · Exposure
Canada Holds No Gold. Seventy Percent of Its Reserves Are in the Currency of the Country That Just Imposed 50% Tariffs.
The only G7 nation with zero gold. US$128 billion in paper reserves, 71% in U.S. dollars, and an annual review that lists gold as eligible but shows no analysis of buying any.
Energy & Tech · Markets
The AI Power Panic
The market is pricing AI power demand as a permanent shortage. The telecom crash of 2001 started the same way.
Private Credit · Markets
The $82 Billion Stress Test
Private credit grew to $2.1 trillion globally. $82 billion sits in structures not stress-tested like banks.
Sovereign Debt · Markets
The Repo Problem
The Bank of Canada changed how it operates in the overnight lending market. What a repo is and why it matters.
Trade & Markets · Markets
The Tariff Whiplash
The legal basis for US tariffs changed in under 12 hours. Markets aren't pricing a rate — they're pricing a framework.
Capital Flows · Markets
The 2007 Benchmark
FDI at C$96.8B matches 2007. Same headline, completely different structural risk underneath.
Energy & Macro · Markets
The Gap
ICE Brent managed money is net short while refining capacity burns and the SPR hits a 40-year low. Canada is exposed to both outcomes.
Global Credit · Markets
The Warning
Credit spreads haven't looked like this since June 2007. The IMF used the word "complacent."
Macro · Markets
Late Cycle Canada
Late-cycle indicators across credit, employment, and fiscal capacity. What the market signals say about where Canada sits.
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