Published Analysis
Markets — Private Credit & Canadian Lending
You’re hearing about a “private credit crisis.” Here’s what private credit actually is, what the stress looks like before defaults arrive, and why it matters if you hold a Canadian mortgage.
The $82 Billion Stress Test
Private credit grew from a niche asset class to $2.1 trillion globally. In Canada, $82 billion sits in non-bank lending structures that don’t report like banks, aren’t stress-tested like banks, and are now rolling over loans into the highest rate environment in two decades. The question isn’t whether there will be defaults. It’s whether the system can see them coming.
March 3, 2026
Markets — Global Credit & Fiscal Policy
Global credit spreads haven't looked like this since June 2007. The IMF used the word "complacent." The BIS named a new failure mode. Canada is spending into it. Two sourced arguments for opposite conclusions — you decide.
The Warning
Should Canada preserve its fiscal buffer against a potential global shock — or is continued investment in housing and the energy transition itself the more durable form of resilience? Both positions are sourced to primary documents. Both are defensible. The question is which risk Canada should be managing first.
March 2, 2026
Markets — Capital Flows
The last time foreign capital flows hit this level was 2007 — the year before the global financial crisis. The comparison is being used by both sides. Here's what it does and doesn't tell you.
The 2007 Benchmark
FDI at C$96.8B matches 2007. But in 2007, GDP was growing 2.7% in a four-year expansion with trade surpluses and a dollar at parity. In 2025, GDP is at 1.7% with a contracting Q4 and record government bond buying. Same FDI. Different economy underneath.
February 27, 2026
Markets — Trade & Policy
SCOTUS struck down IEEPA tariffs Friday. Trump replaced them under Section 122 by Saturday. The Dow dropped 821 points Monday. Markets aren't pricing a tariff rate anymore — they're pricing a framework.
The Tariff Whiplash: Markets Are Now Pricing Uncertainty Itself
The legal basis for US tariffs changed in under 12 hours. Section 122 — a statute nobody had used in 51 years — replaced IEEPA overnight. What that tells us about the durable risk premium now embedded in every supply chain decision, and what the July 24 expiration date actually means for Canada.
February 24, 2026
Markets — Infrastructure & Tech
The market is pricing AI power demand as a permanent physical shortage. The telecom crash of 2001 started the same way.
The AI Power Panic: Are We Building the Next "Dark Fiber" Crash?
In the late 1990s, the consensus was that internet traffic would grow forever. Telecoms buried 80 million miles of fiber and went bankrupt when a software upgrade made most of it redundant. The current AI infrastructure buildout follows the same logic — and ignores the same efficiency curve.
February 23, 2026
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